Advanced biofuels, chemicals capacity to reach 5.89B gallons by 2017

Jim Lane | July 27, 2012

Advanced Biofuels & Chemicals Project Database; 278 projects now tracked; 157 project updates, 29 countries in the July 2012 release; free download.

In Florida, Biofuels Digest is reporting that global advanced biofuels and renewable chemicals capacity will reach 5.89 billion gallons by 2017, up from 5.11 billion gallons by 2016 reported in the November 2011 release, 4.37 billion reported in May, and 3.95 billion gallons reported in January, based on company announcements to date and Digest estimates.

Today, the Digest released the latest version of its free Advanced Biofuels Project Database, which tracks advanced biofuels and renewable chemicals capacity for the 2011-2017 period. Previously the Database tracked projects through 2016.

Both pure-play biofuels and renewable chemicals projects are include, plus integrated biorefineries that are capable of producing food, feed, fiber, fuels and chemicals.

The overall Database is available free to the 49,000 registered subscribers to the Digest’s online publications, and the download links are contained in the daily Biofuels Digest and 3X weekly BioBased Digest newsletters.

Key projects and capacities

The database now tracks 278 advanced biofuels and biomaterials projects, up from 207 in November 2011 and 128 in May 2011.

The database includes the project capacity, location, feedstock, product(s), processing technology and project notes.

Overall, the compiled data indicates that advanced industrial biotech capacity will reach 1.15 billion US gallons by in 2012, 1.55 billion in 2013, 2.54 billion by 2013, 4.15 billion by 2015, 5.50 billion by 2016 and 5.89 billion by 2017.

This compares to 1.21 billion gallons in 2012, 2.15 billion by 2013, 3.24 billion by 2014, and 5.11 billion by 2015.

The May 2011 release showed a projected 1.577 billion gallons by 2012, 2.574 billion by 2013, and 3.283 billion gallons by 2014 in the May projection.

Enhanced database released in September 2012

An enhanced edition of the database will be released in September 2012 with enhanced project details, including key personnel, cost and margin analyses, strategic and supplier partners, financing and risk analysis. This release will be available to the 1,000 members of the Digest’s TAKEOFF community; delegates to the upcoming Advanced Biofuels Markets in San Francisco will receive a complimentary 12-month membership in TAKEOFF.

The next release of the overall Advanced Biofuels Project database is scheduled for December 2012, and will remain free to Biofuels Digest newsletter subscribers, which is available free via BiofuelsDigest.com.

154 project updates; projects in 29 countries

The new database includes updates on 154 new projects, and includes projects in 9 countries, including Australia, Austria, Brazil, Chile, China, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the US.

Project timelines and capacities have been revised for Abengoa, ALgae.Tec, Algenol. Amyris, Beta Renewables, BioAmber, Blue Sugars, Butamax, Coskata, Dupont, Enerkem, Genomatica, Gevo, Green Biologics, Joule, KiOR, LanzaTech, Myriant, POET-DSM, Rentech, Solazyme, Solaena Fuels, Sundrop, TerVIva, Virdia and ZeaChem, among many others.

In adding projected capacities through 2017, the Digest produced estimated project development timelines based on known partners and capacity goals. In particular, the estimates for companies with more than 4 commercial projects through 2017, incuding Gevo, Butamax, Solazyme, and POET-DSM among others, are subject to partner agreements and project announcements that will come at a later date; and should be properly viewed as Digest estimates based on broad company targets and/or sector growth; actual project timelines, locations and volumes are subject to market forces.

More about the Database

The database tracks what are broadly referred to as “next-generation” technologies and feedstocks; the production of biofuels using traditional technologies, and traditional crops such as cane, corn, and soybeans is not tracked here, even though some of these fuels (such as Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and most forms of biodiesel) qualify as “advanced biofuels” under EPA rules that govern the US Renewable Fuel Standard.

“Advanced, next-gen biofuels are now on track to become a $20 billion global business by 2017,” noted Biofuels Digest editor & publisher Jim Lane, who complies the database. “However, let’s focus on the positive trend, while exhibiting caution on the numbers, given the great deal of policy and financial uncertainty.”

Lane noted the emergence of the strategic investors as drivers of the sharp growth rates in the sector. “It is worth noting that giant companies are backing these projects, in addition to the start-ups and venture-backed firms that have been in the game for several years.” Lane said.

BP, Shell, Total, Chevron, Petrobras, Petronas, Marathon, DuPont, Dow, BASF, Bao Steel, Roquette, PTT Chemical, FHR, Valero, Waste Management, and INEOS are among those investing in the commercialization of advanced industrial biotechnology, as well as airline giants such as British Airways and Qantas who are seeking alternative sources of fuel.