Friday, February 27, 2009

Fossil fuel dependancy time bomb for PNG economy.



These PMV (Tambari place,Port Moresby City,Papua New Guinea) private services are fossil fuel driven and if supply has a problem,the busfare are uncontrollably rised.Commuters are always affected. Biofuel can safeguard and ensure smooth running of all aspects of life.


The drastic rise and fall of fuel prices prompted me to share with you as to why.
Our decent life is measured by fuel as number one factor for survival, and if a nation has to progress fuel issue must be solved first foremost.
Poverty alleviation programs may never succeed if fuel issues are not the top agenda of the day’s government.

For the past 24 months up to now, there has been a sharp rise in the fuel prices worldwide; fianacially torturing rural populations, minimum wage earners, and small people by daily hike of goods and services, PNG was worst hit.
Suddenly a sharp drop in fuel in just past couple of days, would some call this a blessing or sympathy? Do not thank God, because this is caused by man for profit.

PNG and other Pacific islands countries seem untuned to the realities of fuel, the immediate impact on people by frequent rise and fall in price. But this dip in fuel price is instigated for market monopoly by producers.

In my previous reports I was stressing on the multi million dollar investments worldwide in every country in alternative fuel sources, development and rapid refocusing to second generation fuel such as biodiesel,bioethanol,biobutanol ,biogas and other renewable alternatives.

It is even more worrying to see leaders having waded with people through high fuel prices and high cost of living yet no attempt to invest in biofuel from our reserves. The recent fall in fuel is a false hope.

The rapid increase by investors in biofuel ,development and usage instigated this sharp fall.This is primarily decided by the producers and not by suppliers.

If Iam a Saudi Arab Oil producer, I will strategically increase my oil per barrel to $100 for the first year,second year,third year,fourth year and fith year drop it to $30 per barrel, enough to scare the investors of the biofuel off platform and enough money to balance for that action from previous rise in price.
Such action does not require a University degree to decide for a supplier if the rapidly increasing biofuel developments are bringing dark storm upon their market.

This was a tactic that was used in 1980s when ethanol as alternative fuel was at its heights, when oil price was hiking to $52 per barrel ,ethanol as biofuel gained moment in its development,after length of time, the oil price was droped to $25 dollars causing the investors and developers to abandon.

This year the triple digit of oil somewhere neared $200 per barrel is brought to double unit about $60 per barrel.

Already, this shaking has caused some investors like VeraSun –the US ethanol producer to field for bankruptcy as reported by Biofuel International Newsletter.
More producers and investors may call off developments in alternative fuel because of imbalance when fossil fuel is again affordable.
The only intention is to maintain and dominate the market of the dirty oil.

But how long would the drop in price hold?

Amazingly PNG is not investing in alternative biofuels that can be developed for internal demand within the nation, meaning we totally surrender and dance to foreign fuel tunes. We have even nothing to bargain with Interoil which is good for Interoil but ghastly terrible for us.Fortunately ,we have Cassava biofuel, however, if marketed in the country may alleviate a little but exporting outside does not balance energy equation.
A government funded development and processing of the biofuels can to a larger extend alleviate greater in a long run. This is what is lacking in PNG and the Pacific island nations. The governments have the sole responsibility for the people and nation they protect.
The next price hike may rise even higher than experienced jeopardizing and crippling business communities in the country, torturing population across the nation.

The only option is to invest in biofuel now when we have the time.From other nations experiences, the biofuel counterattack fuel price and in return maintain reasonable price deal between fuel supplier and consumer such in the case of Brazil cane ethanol, US corn ethanol and the European countries.

Every one even know the fact that world fossil fuel reserve is rapidly depleting , where would the future be for us if reserves near empty? In 1999, the price of oil hovered around $16 a barrel. In July 2008, it reached a peak of $147 a barrel,then up to almost $200 before a sharp drop to $60 per barrel in just days now!

Are we ready for the inevitable? Expect no more sympathizing. The world is drawn into fuel war, its not nuclear weapons or biological weapons that man is so troubled of but rather fuel. Modern policies are sharpened to central around fuel. Absolutely Oil-rich nations enjoy at our inconsistencies and triple profit from our unstrategic energy policies in investments and development in alternative biofuels.

Altering fuel price does not come from us, it may only come when we have our own alternative biofuel developed. This mission lies entirely with the Government to rescue, normalize,and alleviate day to day struggle today and even harsher days ahead. The future can be created today with biofuel.
The best hope for development lies in developing the best energy balance,now the dirty oil is fast demininshing and superpowers make policies for better share ,where would island countries stand in times to come?
Countries like Russia, Venezuela and Iran that were flush with rising oil revenue saw that change reflected in newly aggressive foreign policies. But some unexpected countries reaped benefits, as well as costs, from higher prices. Consider Germany. Although it imports virtually all its oil, it has prospered from extensive trade with a booming Russia and the Middle East. German exports to Russia grew 128 percent from 2001 to 2006.
The high price of gas became an important issue in the presidential campaign. Senator John McCain in particular made energy a focus, proposing to suspend the gas tax during the summer. He also made fervent calls to expand domestic drilling for oil, while his opponent, Barack Obama, emphasized the need for alternative fuels.
American people seem fed up with fossil fuel dilemma and wanted alternative fuel to stay affront when Obama was elected president.
The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday last week that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices.
Given the global warming and sinking islands in our regions, the then Climate office should push and promote for biofuel development and investments inline with Global Warming policies.
The current fuel war is not looking good for the island nations. There is still grace period, we dare not waste now. We can exchange our current non renewable resources for renewable alternative fuel. This is the strategic plan forward, however, it lacks investments. Absolutely ,biofuel is the way for future, for island countries stable economy is encapsulated in alternative energies since the fuel war is getting intense ,none of us is in that war!
We fed only on the results of the war, meaning we still dance to their music.

We should not think the dip in fuel price as announced by Interoil would bring life back to three generation back in the 1960s.But rather a market-supply –demand plan by producers to scare biofuel investors. If they successfully done with that , expect life in the coming times to be more bitter.

We can only wait for the government to devise a department, policies and fund investment for energy development for internal consumption.
Papua New Guinea as being the largest Island in the Pacific has yet to make a development, energy department solely responsible for PNG Energy development.
Future lies in the today’s decision.